来源：中国货币网

文/特约评论员

近日，人民银行发布微博表示“2016年10月1日，人民币将正式加入国际货币基金组织（IMF）特别提款权（SDR）货币篮子，近期一些国际金融组织、境外央行等境外央行类机构和金融机构增加境内人民币债券资产的配置。中国银行间债券市场相关服务机构将继续提供便利”，这显示在人民币即将正式加入SDR货币篮子之际，国际投资者配置人民币债券资产的需求进一步增加，相应带来资本流入，将助力人民币汇率保持稳定。

目前来看，境外机构投资者增持人民币债券资产的驱动力主要源于四个方面。第一，人民币入篮使得一些持有SDR资产的境外机构投资者需要根据新的SDR篮子调整其资产配置，一些境外央行也将增持人民币作为储备资产，这带来相应的人民币汇兑及债券投资需求。第二，人民币资产相对较高的收益率对国际投资者有着较大的吸引力。国际金融危机后，主要发达经济体持续实施宽松货币政策，导致其货币市场和债券市场利率维持低位，全球负利率债券规模已超过13万亿美元。相较而言，我国利率水平明显优于发达经济体，中美1年期国债收益率利差基本保持在1.5个百分点以上，而主权评级又高于其他新兴经济体，我国债券市场对国际资本吸引力较大。第三，金融改革的持续推进提升我国境内金融市场的吸引力。一方面，汇率市场化改革持续推进，汇率形成机制的规则性、透明度和市场化水平不断提高，使得人民币在对美元双边汇率弹性增强的同时，对一篮子货币汇率保持了基本稳定，增强了境外投资者配置和持有人民币资产的信心。另一方面，2015年以来人民银行接连出台了一系列外汇市场和债券市场对外开放政策，提供了丰富的管理汇率、利率风险的金融产品，也为境外投资者汇兑和套期保值提供了便利。第四，随着我国金融市场深化发展和对外开放，下一步中国债券市场还有望加入主要全球债券指数，这些指数在全球约有50万亿美元追踪进行资产配置。A股也有望加入主要股票指数，全球追踪资产规模也达10万亿美元。这都有助于进一步吸引国际资本配置境内债券和股票资产。

境外投资者增持人民币债券资产有助于持续带动长期资本流入。境外投资者配置境内人民币债券的必要环节是兑换人民币，这必然会带来资本流入，而且投资于银行间债券市场的境外机构投资者主要是中长期投资者，其入市投资行为可有效增加中长期资本流入。与此同时，更多境外机构投资者进入银行间债券市场，也有利于促进我国债券市场发展，带来多元化的投资需求和投资策略，提高境内市场基础设施和市场成员的服务水平和国际竞争力。持续增加的境外机构债券投资需求还有利于降低社会融资成本，支持实体经济增长，强化经济基本面。这些都有助于营造更具吸引力的市场和宏观环境，形成良性循环，带动更多长期资本流入。

可以预见，未来随着人民币正式加入SDR货币篮子，以及我国金融市场对外开放的进一步推进，境外投资者增持人民币债券资产带动的资本流入将继续助力人民币汇率保持稳定。2016年8月末，我国债券市场总托管量为59.5万亿元，其中，境外投资者托管量仅占总托管量的不到2%，既远低于发达经济体超过20%的平均水平，也远低于新兴市场超过10%的平均水平，境外投资者投资我国债券市场有着很大的潜力。境外投资者入市带来的人民币兑换需求，与中国显著的贸易顺差一起，将产生规模可观的外汇供给，持续对人民币汇率形成有力支撑。在境内主体外币负债去杠杆已基本完成、对外直接投资增幅趋稳的情况下，资本流动将整体趋于平衡。

总的来看，人民币正式加入SDR货币篮子后，我们应该继续实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。在经济继续保持中高速平稳增长、货物贸易顺差较大、外商直接投资持续增长、外汇储备充裕、资本流动趋于平衡的基本面下，人民币将继续保持对一篮子货币的基本稳定。

The RMB officially joining the SDR currency basket contributes to the RMB exchange rate stability

Guest Commentator of CFETS, Sep 29, 2016

Currently, the People’s Bank of China has announced through Weibo that: “On October 1st 2016, the RMB will officially join the International Monetary Fund （IMF） Special drawing rights (SDR) currency basket. Recently, a number of Foreign Central Banks and similar institutions (including some International Financial Organizations) and financial institutions started to increase their positions in China’s domestic RMB bond assets. The relevant service institutions in China’s interbank bond market will continually offer facilities.” At the time of RMB being included in the SDR currency basket, this indicates an increasing demand for RMB bond assets from international institutional investors, and the corresponding capital inflows will contribute to the stability of RMB exchange rate.

At present, the driving forces for the foreign institutional investors to purchase RMB bond assets mainly come from four aspects: Firstly, since RMB joins the SDR currency basket, those foreign institutional investors who already have SDR asset positions need to adjust their reallocate assets accordingly. Some Foreign Central Banks may also hold more RMB as their reserve assets. Both of these reasons bring the demand for purchasing RMB and RMB bond assets. Secondly, RMB assets are preferably appealing to international investors for higher yield rates. Since the financial crisis in 2008, major developed economies keep implementing easy monetary policy, which results in consistent low yield rates in money and bond markets, and the total amount of negative interest rate bonds has climbed to 13 trillion US dollars globally. By contrast, the interest rate level in China is substantially superior to developed economies. Basically speaking, the spread of 1Y treasury bonds returns between China and Untied States maintains above 150bps. In addition, the sovereign credit rating of China is higher than other emerging economies. Therefore, China’s bond market is quite attractive to international capitals. Thirdly, persistent financial reforms promote the attractiveness of China’s domestic financial markets. On one hand, the market-oriented reform of foreign exchange rate is moving forward continuously, the level of regularity, transparency and market-orientation of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is constantly improving, which leads to a stronger elasticity in USD/CNY exchange rate, as well as more stable RMB exchange rates against a basket of currencies. This stability boosts confidence of foreign investors to purchase and hold RMB assets. On the other hand, the People’s Bank of China has introduced a series of opening-up policies in China’s FX market and bond markets, providing abundant financial products for managing FX and interest rate risks, which facilitating foreign investors in FX trades and hedging risks. Fourthly, alone with the further development and opening-up of Chinese domestic financial markets, Chinese bond market is expected to be incorporated into primary global bond indices，which about 5 trillion US dollars are tracking to asset allocation. And Chinese A-share market is also expected to be incorporated into primary global stock indices, tracking by around 1 trillion US dollars. These practices contribute to appealing more international capitals to allocate China’s domestic bonds and stocks.

Foreign investors’ purchasing RMB bonds contributes to promoting long-term capital inflow. Because, buying RMB is a necessary step of allocating assets in China’s domestic RMB bonds, such allocation will bring capital inflows. Since the majority of targeting foreign institutional investors are mid to long-term investors, their entrance could effectively increase long-term capital inflows. Meanwhile, more and more foreign institutional investors entering China’s interbank bond market may also promote the market’s development. This could be realized by the introduction of more diversified investment demand and strategies, as well as the improvement of the standard of services and international competitiveness of local market participants and infrastructures. What is more, a continued increasing of foreign institutional investors’ demands may help lowering social financing costs, supporting the growth of real economy and strengthening the economic fundamentals. All these contribute to building a more attractive market and macro economic environment，creating a benign cycle and in turn, bringing about more long-term capital inflows.

Predictably, with RMB being formally included into the SDR currency basket and the progressing of the opening up of China’s financial markets, the capital inflows resulted from foreign investors purchasing RMB assets will constantly contribute to stabilizing RMB exchange rate. By the end of August, 2016, the outstanding amount of Chinese bond market was 59.5 trillion RMB, among which only less than 2% was hold by foreign investors. This proportion is not only far below the advanced economies’ average level, which is about 20%, but also significantly lower than the average level of emerging economies, which is about 10%. From this view of point, there is still enormous room for the growth of foreign investors’ investment in China’s interbank bond market. As a result, the huge RMB demand derived from foreign investors’ investment, together with China’s considerable trade surplus, will generate large amount of FX supply, providing continuously supports to RMB exchange rate. Along with the nearly completed de-leveraging process for the foreign currency denominated debt, as well as the leveling out of the growth of ODI, the capital flows in China will trend balance.

Overall, the FX formation mechanism of China will remain unchanged after RMB has officially joined the SDR currency basket. China will continue to operate the managed floating exchange rate regime, which is based on market supply and demand and with reference to a basket of currencies. Meanwhile, given the fundamentals of  the medium-high speed of economic growth, the relatively large trade surplus, the continually increase in the FDI, the abundant foreign exchange reserve and the balanced capital flows, RMB exchange rate will be more capable to keep stable against a basket of currencies.